The year in review
A read of all of this year's reports.
The 2023 reports read like a steadying after a storm. Opening with a "bigger than usual New Year bounce" and closing as the market "stabilises," the year tracks a slow, hedged climb to a May record high, a rate-driven summer reversal, and an autumn of deepening price cuts. The reports keep insisting the year went better than feared, while quietly logging every fresh mortgage-rate jolt.
Themes
- The slow handover from a "frenzied" pandemic market to "more normal" 2019-style activity, framed almost every month as a "transition."
- Higher mortgage rates as the year's antagonist: rates that soften early, jump again in June-July on "stubbornly high inflation," then fall for weeks on end into December.
- A split, "multi-speed, hyper-local market" where first-time-buyer homes hold up and "top-of-the-ladder" larger homes lag.
- A relentless seller-coaching message: price right the first time, heed your agent, or your home goes "stale" and is "left on the shelf."
- A running "better than expected" reassurance, repeated against the gloomy forecasts that opened the year.
Sentiment & tone
The tone is steadying and advisory, the voice of someone talking nervous movers off a ledge. The superlative energy of the boom years is mostly gone; where 2021-22 reached for records, 2023 reaches for caveats. The writing leans on hedges instead: "tentative steps," "it's still early days," "remains to be seen," "small steps towards improved buyer affordability." Praise comes qualified, as in May's record price read as a "belated reaction" rather than a triumph, and August's 1.9% fall reframed as "in part an expected seasonal drop." The few strong words left ("frenzied," "rollercoaster") point backward at the market being left behind, not forward at the one being described.
Key words & phrases
"Twists and turns" recurs almost as a refrain, paired with the year as a "rollercoaster." The market is forever "transitioning" toward "more normal" levels and a "slower-paced" rhythm. The standing instruction is to "price right the first time" so a home doesn't "go stale," with sellers told to "heed their agents' advice." The split market is named bluntly as a "two-speed market."
Worth noting
- The clear turning point is June, headlined "Rate rises quash spring price bounce," when "the belated spring price bounce has quickly turned into an earlier than usual summer slowdown," reversing the optimism that built to May's record £372,894.
- October carries the year's starkest framing: "the most price-sensitive ever" market, with the share of homes finding a buyer falling "from eight in every ten at the height of the frenzy, to a more subdued sales rate of six in every ten."
- A quiet contradiction runs through the back half: prices keep setting bigger-than-average monthly drops (August -1.9%, November -1.7%, December -1.9%) while the headline message stays "better-than-predicted" and the year ends only 1.1% down.
- December points to the return of "family movers who are considering having an estate agent board put up as the Christmas tree comes down," and Tim Bannister calls the year's outcome the market's "much-better-than-predicted resilience."
What this year was about
Words this year used far more than the rest of the corpus — its preoccupations, not generic property language.
| word | uses | vs rest of corpus |
|---|---|---|
| transition | 10 | 20.8× |
| twists | 5 | 20.8× |
| navigate | 5 | 20.8× |
| advice | 9 | 18.7× |
| paced | 4 | 16.6× |
| transitioning | 4 | 16.6× |
| advise | 4 | 16.6× |
| respond | 4 | 16.6× |
| steps | 4 | 16.6× |
| scheme | 4 | 16.6× |
| prospects | 3 | 12.5× |
| heeding | 3 | 12.5× |
Tone profile
Hits in this year, raw and per 1,000 words.
| category | hits | per 1k words |
|---|---|---|
| superlatives | 55 | 3.81 |
| hedges | 76 | 5.27 |
| reassurance | 66 | 4.57 |
| caution to sellers | 26 | 1.8 |
| softening pivots | 144 | 9.98 |
Headlines
- JanuaryBigger than usual New Year bounce after extended year-end lull
- FebruaryBetter than expected market surprises many as buyers return
- MarchCautious recovery continues but larger-home sales lag behind
- AprilFirst-time buyers face record prices as sales recover
- MayPrices hit record high as new sellers respond to improving market
- JuneRate rises quash spring price bounce but activity holds up
- JulyDemand resilient but Bank of England rate rises biting
- August1.9% summer price drop as stretched affordability begins to improve
- SeptemberSubdued August as market looks for autumn pick-up
- OctoberLowest October asking price increase since 2008
- NovemberBetter-than-predicted year, as sellers price more competitively
- DecemberSigns of family movers returning as market stabilises
Voices this year
Tim Bannister (24), Gareth Overton (1), Karl Tatler (1), Ben Rose (1), Michelle Gallagher (1), Andrew Fenton (1), Agent (1), Ben Hudson (1)
Sample report — October 2023
Lowest October asking price increase since 2008
- Average new seller asking prices increase by 0.5% (+£1,950) this month to £368,231, the smallest average asking price increase at this time of year since 2008, and well below the historic norm in October of 1.4%
- The number of sales agreed are 17% below this time last year, as those sellers who are struggling to adjust their price expectations to match current activity levels are finding that their homes are being left on the shelf
- Buyers are still active for the right property at the right price, but agents advise that sellers need to capture attention with a competitive price from the first day of marketing, as starting too high and reducing later damages the chances of a sale:
- The number of buyers enquiring to each available home for sale is 8% higher than the more normal market of 2019
- Importance of immediate buyer interest: if a property receives its first buyer enquiry on the first day of marketing rather than after two weeks, then Rightmove data shows that it is 60% more likely to find a buyer
New seller asking prices rise by 0.5% (+£1,950) this month to £368,231. Although newly advertised property prices typically rise at this time of year, this is the smallest increase in our October report since 2008, and significantly below the average increase of 1.4% seen at this time over the last 20 years. However, despite this more muted rise in average asking prices, buyer activity levels remain significantly lower than during the post-pandemic market frenzy. The number of sales being agreed is now 17% below this time last year, with the proportion of homes finding a buyer and being marked Sold Subject To Contract dropping from an average of eight in ten at the height of the frenzy, to six in ten now. Buyers are still active for the right property at the right price, but agents advise that sellers need to capture a buyer’s attention with a competitive price from the first day of marketing. Rightmove analysis showing that starting too high and reducing later seriously damages the chances of a sale, though many sellers appear to be struggling to adjust their pricing tactics to help them to sell in this more challenging market.
“New seller asking prices have seen a rise, as they usually do at this time of year following the summer holiday season. While this year’s much more subdued rise indicates that some new sellers are gradually heeding their agents’ advice to price competitively, agents report that other sellers still need to adjust their expectations on the price that they are likely to achieve in the current post-pandemic, lower-activity market, where six in ten homes are now selling rather than eight in ten. In a market that agents describe as the most price-sensitive ever, buyers are likely to be on the look-out for homes that they feel represent excellent value, and to attract one of these motivated buyers, sellers need to price right first time. If similar nearby properties for sale appear overpriced, serious sellers have an opportunity to stand out from the crowd with a more competitive price and attract immediate buyer interest that our research shows significantly increases the likelihood of finding a buyer.”