2026

A confident, story-driven start to the year that runs only from January to May 2026. The arc moves from a record-breaking January rebound after the Autumn Budget, through a flat February and steady spring, into a war-in-Iran shock that pushes mortgage rates up sharply, and lands on a market that holds up better than expected while splitting along regional lines. The through-line is resilience under pressure: prices and sales stay steady even as borrowing costs jump and global uncertainty mounts.

Themes

• The year opens on a high: January posts the "largest ever January price jump" as confidence rebounds from Budget uncertainty, then prices flatten in February and settle into typical spring growth.
• Geopolitics becomes a direct market input from March onward. The "war in Iran" drives mortgage rates from 4.25% to 5.42% inside two months, the single biggest force on the year's narrative.
• A north-south divide hardens by May, with affordable northern regions (North East +2.7%, North West +2.6%, Scotland +4%) rising while London (-2.4%) and the South East (-1.6%) fall.
• Buyer choice stays the constant backdrop: an 11-year high in homes for sale keeps a lid on price growth and pushes a steady refrain that sellers must price realistically.
• First-time buyers anchor the resilience story, holding up even as borrowing costs climb.

Sentiment & tone

The writing carries genuine confidence and rarely softens its claims. It states outcomes plainly ("the market remains confident," "surprisingly strong," "the strongest start to a year for prices since 2020") rather than wrapping them in qualifiers. Even when reporting the rate shock, the tone stays measured and forward-leaning, framing higher rates as a pressure the market absorbs. Where caution appears, it is concrete rather than vague, tied to a specific unknown like the unfolding effect of the war.

Key words & phrases

The vocabulary leans on steadiness and surprise: "steady so far," "surprisingly strong" and "surprisingly well," sellers being "more restrained and realistic," and the May headline's "north-south divide." The image of buyer choice as a brake runs through every month, alongside the repeated warning against being "over-optimistic" on price. The contrast between homes "priced realistically from the outset" and those needing a reduction recurs as a numbers-backed motif (127 days versus 36).

Worth noting

• A house-price report quantifies a war in pounds: April pins the rate jump to "before the start of the war in Iran" and prices the cost at "around £235" extra a month on a typical new mortgage.
• The standout headline is January's record: "Largest ever January price jump," the biggest monthly rise since June 2015 in 25 years of the index.
• Colleen Babcock's line captures the year's mood: "'steady rather than strong' is how I'd describe the start of this year's spring market."
• A striking aside on world events versus housing need: April notes "home-movers are largely showing their usual resilience with their housing needs trumping other events."